Anti-Involution and Double 11 Bring Profit Recovery Hope to Express Delivery Industry

Anti-Involution and Double 11 Bring Profit Recovery Hope to Express Delivery Industry

As the 2025 Double 11 approaches, the express delivery industry is not only facing a peak in business volume but also undergoing a profound transformation from “price war” to “value war”. Driven by strong “anti-involution” policies, express delivery companies are saying goodbye to years of low-price competition and embracing a new starting point for high-quality development. The 2025 Double 11 may not only be a carnival for e-commerce but also a key node for the express delivery industry to break free from homogeneous competition and achieve profit recovery.

Policy Dividends: Initial Results of “Anti-Involution”

On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation drafted the Price Law of the People’s Republic of China Amendment Draft (Exposure Draft) to solicit public opinions. Together with the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law in June 2025, it regulates market price order and targets “involutionary” competition, marking a systematic governance stage for anti-involution.

On July 29, the State Post Bureau held a seminar with express companies (including ZTO, YTO, Yunda, STO, J&T) to discuss regulating “involutionary” competition and protecting couriers’ rights. On October 21, another meeting emphasized cracking down on illegal fees in rural areas and “involutionary” competition. On October 24, the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation issued an initiative against low-quality low-price competition and promoted digital transformation.

From August to October, over 10 regions (Hunan, Anhui, Jiangxi, etc.) announced express price increases of 0.1-0.4 yuan per order. National Post Bureau data shows that from January to September 2025, reached 145.08 billion pieces (+17.2% YoY), with revenue at 1.08574 trillion yuan (+8.9% YoY). The average single-ticket price in September was 7.55 yuan, down 4.91% YoY but up 2.44% MoM.

Double 11 Peak: Volume Surge and Price Recovery

The 2025 Double 11 started early: JD and Douyin launched promotions on October 9, while Taobao/Tmall started pre-sales on October 15. In 2024, Double 11 courier volume reached 12.082 billion pieces (+21.4% YoY), and 2025 is expected to hit a new high.

YTO’s Shanghai hub reported a 10-20% YoY increase in early Double 11 volume, with daily volume doubling. Franchise express companies raised prices for 0-1kg (+0.05 yuan/order), 1-5kg (+0.1 yuan/order), and 5kg+ (+0.1 yuan/kg) in late October. Dongguan Securities noted that price hikes and Double 11 would boost profit margins.

Industry Profit Recovery: Company Performance Improvement

September operating data shows price recovery: ZTO’s single-ticket price rose 1.09% YoY, STO +4.95% YoY, Yunda +0.50% YoY; SF’s price decline narrowed.

YTO: September revenue 5.799 billion yuan (+14.89% YoY), volume 2.627 billion pieces (+13.64% YoY), single-ticket 2.21 yuan (+1.09% YoY). Yunda: Revenue 4.252 billion yuan (+4.14% YoY), volume 2.11 billion pieces (+3.63% YoY), single-ticket 2.02 yuan (+0.50% YoY). STO: Revenue 4.633 billion yuan (+14.89% YoY), volume 2.187 billion pieces (+9.46% YoY), single-ticket 2.12 yuan (+4.95% YoY).

STO acquired 100% of Danniao Logistics for 362 million yuan in July, aiming to enter high-end markets. SF: September revenue 20.854 billion yuan (+14.21% YoY), volume 1.504 billion pieces (+31.81% YoY), single-ticket 13.87 yuan (-13.31% YoY, narrower decline).

Analysts from Caitong Securities recommend ZTO (high volume growth), ZTO (Q2 recovery), STO (high elasticity), and Yunda. The industry is expected to see profit as anti-involution continues.